In late December, I considered getting two items of clothing: a wool sweater and a heavy parka, both for those unusually cold days with highs in the teens and lows near zero. But I decided to wait. The long range predictions of the ECMWF and GFS computer models both showed mild temperatures. I decided that I wouldn't get anything until these models suggested at least a chance of an Arctic intrusion sometime in the medium range period.

Now it's January 20th and it's been mild ever since. Both models continue to show a relatively flat or zonal flow, meaning mild temperatures (30s and 40s) without anything frigid. In the meantime, the price of the North Face jacket I've had my eye on has fallen by 20%. I may be able to make it through the winter without a wool sweater. I generally try to avoid wool, because Manhattan interior spaces can get hot.

There's no way to tell if the rest of the winter will be this mild. It's rare to get an entire winter without an extended Arctic outbreak. My guess would be that February just has to be colder than January has been. But we'll see.