I was just outside thinking how nice it is just to have light drizzle falling. Only to get home, check the radar, and see yet another band of moderate rain moving in.

The rainy week did indeed pan out. The computer models are still having a lot of trouble with the details, but here's essentially what's going on:

• High pressure is stuck over Quebec. Winds around high pressure circulate clockwise. So winds are coming around the New England coast and in from the northeast and east.

• A low pressure trough is to the west. Winds around low pressure circulate counterclockwise, so winds are coming around from the mid-Atlantic states and up into our area.

Usually a persistent east and southeasterly upper flow wouldn't be that bad. But there's one problem: a ton of tropical moisture is sitting out in the ocean near Bermuda. The tropical feed extends way down south. So this persistent southeasterly flow is acting as a conduit for an endless feed of showers. That's why all the rain bands have been moving in from the ocean, like the one coming onshore right now.

When we had one sunny-and-80 day after another through early October, I just had a hunch that once the pattern turned, it would do so with drama. Weather always seems to react to itself like that.