Snow has now arrived in Manhattan and it could be the start of an exciting weather week. The southern (tropical) jet stream is juicing up, and cold air will continue to come out of Canada. This combination generally sets up the opportunity for moisture-laden coastal storms, and indeed, all eyes are on next Tuesday or Wednesday for a possible coastal system.

Unfortunately, the computer models have been having all kinds of trouble pinning down storm paths in this complex pattern. The European model, for example, first predicted the storm to travel up the Appalachians (which would mean rain for us); then it took the storm out to sea south of us (which would mean light snow at most); now it shows the storm passing over NYC (which would mean rain). The GFS model is no more consistent. All bets are off for precipitation type. In addition, the sun angle is high enough so that for a big accumulating snow, most of it would have to fall at night.

Some kind of unsettled weather is a good bet next week. But any kind of specific high temperature prediction and precipitation forecast will be pretty much guesswork through at least Sunday.