Score another one for the ECMWF (European) computer model. Not only did it do well with the recent snowstorm, but it was the first model to predict the imminent return of Arctic air. I think until further notice, the ECMWF is the model of choice. However, computer models are like mutual funds: past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forecasts busts tend to occur that very first time the model just doesn't get it right.

One reason I love reading the technical forecast discussions is that they provide a glimpse of the internal debates in a prediction. Earlier in the week, the National Weather Service in Albany was saying that although its official late-week forecast highs for the Berkshires were in the upper teens, it wanted to go colder. The problem was it couldn't break ranks with surrounding NWS offices. As it turns out, the forecast highs dropped and now the NWS is predicting highs around 10 for the Berkshires on Thursday and Friday. (The three discussions I routinely read: New York City, Albany and Boston.)

The good news: it's a quick blast this time with temperatures moderating by Sunday, melting the snow.