Busy trying to wrap things up before vacation, but not too busy for a quick look at the computer models and forecast discussions. Here's a best guess for the possible storm on Monday.

It could be a near miss or a significant snowfall, but it's way too early to tell. The upper air energy to form the basis for this storm has just entered western Canada. Up to this morning, the computer models have been using data gathered from extremely sparse soundings over the Pacific Ocean. The margin of error in this data could easily translate to an erroneous prediction for the surface coastal storm three days away.

The debate is whether the trough will be negatively tilted (keeping the storm track along the coast) or progressive (steering it out to sea). It's too soon to tell. At any rate, Monday looks cold and windy--and snow would only add to pretty nasty conditions.