They all blew it.

Several days ago, just about every computer model out there had shown the remnants of Hurricane Ivan stalling over the middle Appalachians. By today, the center was still supposed to be in or around Tennessee. However, what's left of Ivan has moved well out to sea, and New York City is sitting under vivid blue skies and in crisp, cool air. What happened?

Well, it seems to me this is not a coincidence. As discussed here before, fronts have a tendency to act as a conduit for storm centers and moisture. The forecasts of Ivan stalling seemed based on the premise that Canadian high pressure would not quite be able to push away the lingering front along the East Coast. This moisture would be channeled up the front, the models showed, and rain would linger from the Appalachians out along the East Coast.

In fact, this Canadian high pressure center turned out to be a monster. An afternoon temperature in the low 60s this time of year represents extremely cold air. And with a pressure of 30.25, relatively high as air pressure goes around here, we're not even near the axis of highest pressure -- a sprawling ridge bubbling along a line from roughly Cleveland to Mt. Tremblant, Quebec. (The barometric pressure in Cleveland is 30.40.)

No wonder the front--and its moisture, and Ivan--were simply shoved out to sea. Of course, nobody is complaining at this forecast bust, except for the people who might want to be delayed on the subway again.