Here's a secret you won't hear from just about any meteorologist or weathercaster: the forecast for this week beyond Thursday is pretty much complete guesswork.

Today marks the start of the annual ritual called the Very Annoying Cutoff Low. In this phenomenon, a core of energy gets cut off from the jetstream and loses its forward momentum. It simply wanders around for several days producing clouds and rain. Here in Manhattan, the effects are especially dismal because the persistent onshore winds bring in cold, damp air. (It's 36 in New York City now and 44 in Burlington, Vermont.)

Late March and April are prime time for cutoff lows. And the computer models are hopeless when it comes to predicting when this so-called blocking pattern will finally break down.

Some forecasts are calling for sunshine this weekend, but I would not race to plan any outdoor activity until at least later on in the week.